In March, the market price of carbon black rose to a record high, driving factors analysis

Key Words：Record high, seasonal fluctuation, supply, demand
In March, the stalemate in the carbon black market after the Spring Festival broke, and the price of carbon black market "skyrocketed" to a record high. This round of price increase in the carbon black market is mainly driven by supply and demand factors, followed by high cost of carbon black market prices to a certain extent.

In March, the price of black carbon rose to a record high

       Fluctuation characteristics of N330 in Shandong Market of China in 2022

In March, the market price of carbon black showed a high upward trend and reached a record high point. By the end of March, the mainstream price of N330 carbon black in Shandong market refers to 9500-9700 yuan/ton, which is 15.66% higher than the average price at the end of last month. In March, the low price was 8200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the high price was 9700 yuan/ton at the end of March。
Analysis of price fluctuation and seasonal fluctuation characteristics of carbon black market in March
In March 2022, the average market price of carbon black was 8,850 yuan/ton, up 6.63% month-on-month and 15% year-on-year. According to the characteristics of price fluctuation in the past 12 years, the market price of carbon black is higher than the level and maximum value of the same period in previous years. In march in previous years, the overall performance of carbon black market was tepid and the price fluctuation was small. However, in March this year, the price of carbon black market showed a significant increase, which was mainly due to the favorable supply and demand of carbon black and the superimposed cost support.

In March, the market price of carbon black is in the stage of higher possibility. In March 2020, the operation rule of carbon black market price is consistent with the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of previous years, but the increase is much higher than the same period of previous years. The main reason is that the increase of demand is greater than the increase of supply, leading to tight supply side of the industry. In contrast, the price movement trend of carbon black market in the same period of 2021 is weak, mainly due to the following reasons: the profit level of carbon black market in 2021 is high, and the relatively high starting load is maintained during the Spring Festival. In March, the tight supply side of the industry is relieved, and the bargaining sentiment of downstream rubber products enterprises such as tires is strong, and the price is weak.

Price driver	Impact strength	Key concerns
Requirement	★★★★★	Downstream tire and other rubber products enterprises raw material carbon black inventory is low, stock just need to support; Export orders increased significantly and prices were high
Supply	★★★★	Although the starting load of carbon black industry has been improved, it is still at a low level. In addition, the industry supply does not increase much due to the maintenance of some large factories
Cost	★★★	The price of high-temperature coal tar, the raw material, is high and volatile, the cost is still high, and corporate profits are weak or even loss
market mentality	★★	Carbon black production enterprises reluctant to sell high price mentality; Downstream tire and other rubber products enterprises bargaining mood weakened

Demand: In March, the total demand for carbon black industry increased by 68.40% month-on-month and 8.87% year-on-year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the starting load of some downstream enterprises with low initial starting level gradually increased, and the raw carbon black inventory of downstream products enterprises was low, which required support for procurement. In addition, the European market is highly motivated to purchase, China's carbon black export orders increased significantly.
Supply：the total supply of carbon black industry in March rose 15.74% month-on-month and fell 14.49% year-on-year. After the Spring Festival, the starting load of some enterprises with low starting load in the early stage gradually recovered. The external irresistible factors also weakened the starting load limit of the industry compared with the early stage, but it still remained. However, with the end of the heating season, some enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the starting load of the industry did not increase significantly. The immediate profit of carbon black industry after the Spring Festival was lower than the level of the same period last year, and the overall output in March declined compared with the level of the same period last year. The immediate profit of carbon black industry after the Spring Festival was lower than the level of the same period last year, and the overall output in March declined compared with the level of the same period last year.
Cost: in March, high temperature coal tar market high shock: downstream deep processing enterprises continue to suffer losses, the ability to undertake high raw materials is weak, but high coal tar supply side tight situation continues, market prices are mixed but the range is not large. As of March 31, the average price of Shandong market 5029 yuan/ton, compared with the average price of 4939 yuan/ton last month, up 1.82%.
Market mentality: the supply of carbon black market is tight, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at high prices, and low-price orders have basically stopped receiving orders; Carbon black inventory of downstream tire and other rubber products enterprises is low, purchasing intention is improved, and the space for price negotiation is reduced.